Tether Just Played the Card I Said They Would
USAT is live. Here’s what it means......and what it doesn’t.
Let’s not pretend this came out of nowhere.
For months, the writing was on the wall. U.S. lawmakers were circling. The GENIUS Act was inching closer. Circle was pivoting into full compliance cosplay. And Paolo? He was telegraphing the move in broad daylight.
So now it’s official. Tether is launching a U.S.-regulated stablecoin: USA₮. Full Boomer Mode, complete with a handpicked CEO (Bo Hines), a Cantor Fitzgerald custody deal, and a press release so patriotic it could’ve been drafted on Capitol Hill.
But if you’ve been reading The Stable Wars, you already knew this was coming.
I laid it out back in May and March. A bifurcation play; ne offshore token for the trenches (USDT), one sanitized version for Washington’s dinner table (USAT). Tether has been reading the room and front-running regulation with a structure no one can kill.
Let’s unpack it.
The Two-Tether Strategy Is Now Official
There’s now a clean split:
USDT stays offshore. Dirty, liquid, everywhere. For traders, OTC desks, and people with real (hyper)inflation problems
USA₮ becomes the compliant cousin. Fully regulated under the GENIUS Act, issued by Anchorage Digital Bank, backed by U.S. Treasuries, and wrapped in Bo Hines’s Yale-colored patagonia shirt
It’s the same dollar but with different trade-offs; and different masters.
If you’re a U.S. exchange or a bank looking to tokenize payments and payroll, USA₮ gives you the checkbox you need. If you’re a Turkish importer or Nigerian freelancer, USDT is still your best bet.
Circle Just Lost Its Monopoly on Clean Money
For years, Circle’s value prop was: “We’re the compliant one.” That moat just got torched. Tether just replicated Circle’s playbook includign but not limited to federal compliance, institutional rails, transparent reserves…….and they added a few tricks Circle can’t match:
Tether’s reach is 10x wider
$13B in 2024. Circle is nowhere near in the same league
Tether doesn’t need a glossy rebrand to sound global. It already is
If USAT gets traction with banks and payment partners, Circle’s “clean and compliant” brand edge vanishes. And if it doesn’t? Tether still controls the dominant token across emerging markets. Either way, Circle will now start playing defense.
USAT Is a Trojan Horse for Dollar Dominance
If you look past the compliance fluff, USAT is how Tether gets inside the U.S. perimeter without giving up the war outside it.
You want dollars? We’ve got two flavors:
Frictionless (USDT)
Regulated (USAT)
Pick one or use both. Either way, the dollar wins. The real brilliance here is that USAT doesn’t replace USDT. It absorbs U.S. compliance pressure while letting USDT continue being the grease for every non-sanctioned dollar transaction on earth.
Tether isn’t just defending its turf. It’s expanding the map.
Don’t Let the Stars & Stripes Fool You
The Bo Hines appointment? The Cantor connection? The Hadron buzzwords? It’s all signal. But don’t mistake the wrapping for the product.
Tether is still Tether. This is a company that prints dollars faster than some central banks, owns more U.S. Treasuries than Australia, and runs one of the most profitable businesses in fintech history. I imagine UAST was their most stressful build yet; not to appease regulators, but to box out competitors.
The Gameboard Has Changed. Again.
The stablecoin war just got a new lane and a new weapon. Circle’s vision of owning the rails through compliance got countered by Tether by owning the network and offering compliant access as a product, not a sacrifice.
USAT is the opt-in version of legitimacy. Not everyone needs it. But now it exists. And it’s backed by the same behemoth that built USDT into a $169B global monster.
Which brings us here:
The Future Is Fragmented.
There won’t be one winner. There will be layers.
Institutions will use USAT
Emerging markets will cling to USDT
Circle will scream about “trust”
Politicians will keep pretending they understand
But the real story?
Tether just made the U.S. dollar even harder to kill.
Receipts
My original article from May predicting this: What the Genius Act Could Mean for Tether
My March piece outlining the bifurcation path: What Happens if the U.S. Forces All Dollar Stablecoins to Be Issued Domestically
I love stablecoins, Tether in particular, and I will be writing about the ongoing and ever-increasing future stablecoin war. Stay tuned for insights, drama, and analysis as it all unfolds.
P.S. In case you didn’t realize, I am not Patrick Hansen